Trump in Jail Make America Great Again

Donald Trump is probable to maintain a grip on the populist wing of the GOP.

Highlights

• If bedevilled, Trump volition be barred from running for federal function once more
• Trump is already facing a number of legal threats that pre-date election
• Whatever political comeback will depend on new ways to mobilize his base

Almost ex-presidents spend their time out of part playing golf game, getting their libraries in order, making well-paid speeches, writing even more lucrative memoirs and bitter their tongues nearly what the next guy is doing. Other than the golf, the road ahead for Donald Trump, a president who has never adhered to his office'due south norms, will be dissimilar whatsoever other.

Nosotros know where he will not be when his term ends at noon on Wednesday - he's the first president since Andrew Johnson in 1869 to refuse to attend his successor'southward inauguration. Merely in that location is no clear respond notwithstanding on what he plans to do next. Even where he plans to alive is potentially upwards in the air - though Trump says he'south moving to his Mar-a-Lago individual gild, some of his Palm Beach, Florida, neighbors are challenging his ability to live there full-time.

In the virtually term and possibly longer, Trump's post-presidential options will be circumscribed by the fallout over his Jan. half-dozen speech egging on the oversupply that would keep to storm the U.Due south. Capitol, including a historic second impeachment. If he'southward convicted at the upcoming Senate trial, he'll nearly certainly be barred from always running for federal office again. For now, some of Corporate America'south biggest names are shunning the businessman president, "de-platforming" him on social media and cutting him off from certain professional and financial services. Tens of millions of his boyfriend citizens will go on to revile him, rendering the Trump brand toxic to half the state and harming prospects for his existent estate, hotel and golf resort empire.

But tens of millions of other Americans are likely to form a durable base of support, making Trump a political force for years to come regardless of whether he seeks the presidency over again. Deprived of his @realDonaldTrump megaphone and other online platforms, the former president will take to think of new ways to mobilize - and possibly monetize - his loyal followers. Though Trump will likely be frozen out of mainstream media opportunities, he could launch his ain endeavors focused on his conservative base, mayhap a Trump network to get caput-to-head with Fox News or a Trump social media site to compete with Twitter.

Of course, that's assuming he's not completely consumed by court battles one time he leaves part. Fifty-fifty before the Capitol riot, he faced several lawsuits and potential criminal investigations. His wild election-fraud claims and possible incitement of the riot have simply added to his legal risk. There'southward a very real possibility that Trump could wind up in jail.

It's probably not wise to count out Trump though. Widely dismissed subsequently his 1990s Atlantic City casino bankruptcies, he came back strongly a decade later on on "The Apprentice." Then, when his ratings began to wane, he latched on to the racist birther conspiracy about President Barack Obama and built a new, right-wing audience that ultimately carried him into the White Firm. Even his defeat by President-elect Joe Biden was past a much narrower margin than polls had predicted.

As for that presidential library, usually a gleaming monument to a leader'southward achievements? There are no public plans yet, but comedian Luke Thayer and former Trump White House communications manager Anthony Scaramucci have made some suggestions in their spoof djtrumplibrary.com site, including a "Prevarication to America" exhibition and a "grift shop."

Politics

Before the Capitol riot, it looked similar Trump would remain the Republican Party standard-bearer, either running for president himself again in 2024 or interim as kingmaker in the GOP field. He was also expected to exact revenge against a long line of Republicans who crossed him, most notably Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, who refused to try to overturn Biden's election win in the land.

But some believe Jan. 6 inverse all that.

Georgia Governor Brian Kemp

"When the Trump presidency is discussed in the nearly, medium and long term past anyone, all conversations volition brainstorm and end with the mean solar day of insurrection," said Republican strategist and one-time George W. Bush White Firm adjutant Scott Jennings. "And I don't know how you lot ultimately get back to the American people and say, 'Please overlook that one twenty-four hours because it wasn't actually our fault.' Well, yeah it was. Information technology was your mistake."

A Jan. fifteen Pew Research poll supports that view, finding only 29% chore approving for Trump, with 68% of the sample saying they don't want him to remain a major political figure in the years to come.

The anarchism has certainly exposed a rift in the GOP. Republican House Briefing Chair Liz Cheney was i of 10 members who crossed party lines and joined Democrats in impeaching Trump for inciting coup. Several Republican senators, including Leader Mitch McConnell, have suggested they are open up to convicting Trump, which would effectively finish his 2024 run earlier information technology begins. Dozens of major U.S. corporations, business groups and donors who typically back Republicans accept said they will suspend or stop campaign contributions to candidates who supported Trump's challenge to the election results.

Just Trump is likely to maintain a grip on the populist fly of the GOP. That was axiomatic on Jan. 8 when the Republican National Committee re-elected Trump allies Ronna Romney McDaniel and Tommy Hicks every bit chair and vice chair in what was widely viewed equally a proxy fight over the outgoing president's role in the political party. Despite the defections, the vast majority of House Republicans opposed impeachment, and nearly ii-thirds did Trump's bidding and objected to state-certified balloter votes for Biden fifty-fifty after the violence in Washington. Recent polls accept shown that nigh Republican voters still back up Trump and don't blame him for the Capitol riot.

"That doesn't go away overnight," said Kevin Madden, a senior adviser to Paw Romney'southward 2012 presidential campaign, said of Trump's popularity with the Republican base of operations. "That power that he has, that connection with the most active voices inside his movement, is very real and it still exists."

Social Media

Any political improvement will depend on Trump finding a new way to mobilize his base. The scale of his de-platforming is hard to overstate. His @realDonaldTrump account had more so 88 one thousand thousand followers earlier Twitter permanently banned him on Jan. viii for breaking its rules against glorifying violence. He also lost admission to more than 30 million Facebook friends when he was banned from that site indefinitely and at to the lowest degree through Biden's inauguration.

The president withal has ways to accomplish his nearly fervent fans though. The Official Trump 2020 Mobile App, which was used to register rally attendees and for directly messaging during the entrada, was downloaded 2.vi million times in the terminal twelvemonth, with users required to input phone numbers and agree to be contacted, co-ordinate to Apptopia. Nu Wexler, a communications consultant formerly with Google, Facebook and Twitter, said Trump's online footprint is nevertheless remarkable amidst Republican politicians.

"He has millions of cell numbers from events and a fundraising email listing that dwarfs the rest of his party," said Wexler. "So he won't have whatever trouble communicating directly with his supporters."

Simply conveying his message beyond that core will remain a challenge, and some options could prove problematic. Jared Kushner, Trump'south son-in-police and a White House senior adviser, stopped an effort to sign the president upward on right-fly social media platforms like Gab and Parler subsequently Twitter suspended his account final week, co-ordinate to three people familiar with the matter. Parler was taken offline past Amazon Web Services for promoting violence in the wake of the Capitol riot and was likewise previously dropped by the Google and Apple tree app stores.

Wexler said fringier platforms similar Gab and Parler wouldn't reach a broader audition the mode his Twitter account did. And their echo sleeping room of like-minded users may bore him. "He won't get the thrill of fighting with Democrats," said Wexler.

Raising money online could also be a problem going forward for a president who raised $ane.6 billion in his bid for a second term, including $167.6 1000000 that came in after the election as he trumpeted imitation claims of widespread fraud. Payment processors PayPal, Square and Stripe take joined the social media giants in suspending accounts tied to Trump.

The Trump Organization

The New York real manor developer made his properties the backdrop for many of the most memorable moments of his political career. He descended Trump Belfry's escalator to denote his candidacy, defended White supremacists as "very fine people" in the antechamber of the same building and held a crowded fundraiser at his Bedminster, New Jersey, golf club just earlier he was diagnosed with Covid-19.

Trump'due south divisive politics take inevitably impacted his family'south existent estate, hotel and golf empire, much of which is located in New York and other Democratic-leaning states. In a move that reportedly "gutted" the president, his Bedminster club was stripped of the 2022 PGA Championship in the wake of the Capitol anarchism, with the golf game body maxim that belongings the prestigious event at the Trump course would be "detrimental" to its make.

Trump Tower stands in New York.

The PGA stuck with him longer than most. Palm Embankment charity balls and social events fled Mar-a-Lago en masse after his Charlottesville remarks, and several hotels and condo buildings take exited Trump direction contracts in recent years, removing the president's name from their exteriors and awnings in the process. Trump properties have as well inevitably been hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic along with the rest of the real estate, tourism and leisure sectors. In New York, part vacancies are rising, retail is decimated and residential rents are falling.

It all couldn't come at a worse time for Trump, whose visitor carries $1 billion of debt, much of which he's personally liable for. Though his avails would cover that, recriminations from the Capitol riot will make refinancing a challenge. Deutsche Bank, which holds much of his debt and was the concluding large bank willing to do business concern with him, has now alleged it will no longer do then, and smaller Signature Bank, on whose board Trump's daughter Ivanka once sat, twisted the knife by declaring the president persona not grata and closing his accounts. Even selling his assets to enhance cash volition be harder, every bit brokerage giants similar Cushman & Wakefield and JLL have cutting ties with him.

Alan Garten, general counsel for the Trump Organization, didn't respond to requests for comment virtually the land of the business and its prospects.

One potential silver lining for Trump is that beingness president has made him even more famous than before overseas, and he may discover more business opportunities in markets like Brazil, Turkey, the Philippines and India, where he retains some popularity and whose authoritarian leaders he courted while in office. His administration also developed close ties in the United Arab Emirates, where he's previously done business organization, and Saudi Arabia, where his visitor considered projects prior to his ascent to the presidency.

Hussain Sajwani, chairman of Dubai's DAMAC Properties, which has partnered with Trump on two golf game courses in the emirate, said he'd welcome the adventure to aggrandize his firm'southward relationship with Trump. "Nosotros have a neat human relationship with the Trump Organization and, be assured, nosotros have absolutely no intention to cancel our agreement," he said.

Media

With a beloved for the limelight, Trump is expected to pursue media opportunities of some kind, whether a book deal, a lucrative part at a news channel or his ain media venture.

Rumors of Trump discussing an "Apprentice" revival with show creator Mark Burnett have cropped up periodically during his fourth dimension in role. In November 2019, Trump took to Twitter to deny a Daily Beast written report that such talks had taken place, though he allowed that it would be "a big testify." It would exist unsurprising if Trump did seek to revive the bear witness - according to the New York Times investigative written report that revealed his tax information in September 2020, "The Apprentice" ultimately made him $427 meg, a windfall that turned his business organisation fortunes around.

With Trump now anathema to a large function of his former audition, a return to network Television receiver is loftier unlikely, though onetime campaign adviser Sam Nunberg says the idea shouldn't exist ruled out.

"Donald Trump is a money-making article in media," Nunberg said. "There will always exist a space for him. He will ever have a tremendous audience. Even people who hate him will scout him."

Bourgeois media seems a surer bet, though the messy aftermath of the election has scrambled that mural also. Fox News' early on call of Arizona and subsequently the ballot for Biden was seen equally a stark betrayal by Trump, who began railing against Rupert Murdoch'southward conservative news behemothic and urging his supporters to switch to upstart rivals like Newsmax and One America News Network that more freely repeated his groundless claims of ballot fraud. Merely those channels nevertheless reach far fewer viewers than Fox, and in that location have been calls for cablevision operators like AT&T and Comcast to drop them in the wake of the Capitol riots.

The Wall Street Journal reported in November that Hicks Equity Partners, an investment firm associated with RNC Vice Chair Tommy Hicks, the son of Hicks, Muse, Tate & Furst founder Tom Hicks, has tried to raise money to help fund a correct-leaning outlet to compete with Pull a fast one on News. Many doubt the former president would be able to raise the kind of money needed to create a credible alternative to Fox. Pol media columnist Jack Shafer dismissed the thought of a Trump network concluding calendar week, noting that the former president would accept a hard time convincing cable companies to acquit his channel, face up withering competition from a once-friendly Fox and struggle to attract advertisers as well MyPillow.

Even just getting a volume published might be tough. The Obamas got a combined $65 meg advance for their memoirs, and Trump would no doubt dear to best that effigy. If he does though, it might not exist with a mainstream publishing business firm. Simon & Schuster, which is being bought by Bertelsmann SE, recently canceled plans to publish a book by Republican Senator Josh Hawley, who sought to claiming Biden's election win and was photographed raising his fist to salute the Capitol protesters.

But Nunberg said Trump is in a whole unlike category from Hawley. "Simon & Schuster would love to publish a Donald Trump book," Nunberg said. "That book will sell more than Obama's. And it wouldn't be 700 pages."

Retail

Trump has long loved to slap his name on things, buildings for sure but also developed-education courses, vodka (though he doesn't beverage) and mail-order steaks (he eats his well-washed, with ketchup). This trait appears to run in the family - before her father became president, Ivanka Trump built a fashion characterization that sold apparel, shoes and handbags at retailers like Lord & Taylor and Bloomingdale's.

But, equally far as mainstream customers go, that ship likely sailed a long time ago.

"The brand is irreparably stained," said New York public relations executive Dorothy Crenshaw. The partners and retail ecosystem Donald Trump would need to become his products on the market won't want to have anything to exercise with him at present, she said. "I really don't meet any viability."

Trump-branded items were dropped from Macy's and other retailers before long later on he launched his campaign with a voice communication promising to build a edge wall to keep out "rapists" from Mexico. Ivanka's partners started pulling her trade in 2017 after she took an advisory role in her begetter's administration, with Nordstrom, Neiman Marcus and Hudson's Bay all dropping her label entirely. She shut downward her style business organization in 2018, and at present her clothes can only exist plant secondhand at resellers such as thredUP or auction sites similar eBay.

Every bit in other areas, any time to come Trump retail enterprise will probable be geared towards the president's bourgeois base. But even maintaining the site selling Make America Great Again caps and mugs is proving hard. E-commerce platform Shopify's determination to cut ties with Trump briefly complicated online sales, although the site began operating once again over the weekend.

Though the family unit hasn't declared whatever intention of expanding their consumer-facing businesses, the Trumps still hold live trademarks for products ranging from infant beddings to coffee to greeting cards. And Ivanka may notice new markets for her wares away - the Chinese authorities awarded her dozens of trademarks during her father's time in office, many of which seemed suspiciously timed with Trump assistants foreign policy decisions, watchdog group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington has pointed out.

Legal Exposure

Of course, none of that volition matter if Trump is behind bars. He was already facing a number of legal threats that pre-date the election. Special Counsel Robert Mueller'south team detailed several instances in which the president may have obstructed justice, and Trump was also potentially implicated in the entrada finance instance that resulted in a three-year sentence for his one-time personal lawyer and fixer Michael Cohen.

Justice Section policy has shielded Trump from federal prosecution as a sitting president, but that goes away on Wednesday, and the incoming administration could revive those cases. The revelation by the New York Times that Trump took a number of questionable deductions over the years and only paid $750 in income taxes in 2016 could likewise spur a fresh probe into possible tax evasion.

New York state government have been eyeing Trump as well. Manhattan Commune Attorney Cyrus Vance is leading a probe of the president'due south business organization dealings that could ultimately result in criminal charges. New York Chaser General Letitia James is simultaneously pursuing an investigation into whether the Trump Organization inflated nugget values.

Trump's personal conduct is also at effect in a number of civil cases. He could soon face depositions in ii New York defamation lawsuits brought by women he said were lying when they accused him of sexual assault.

US President Donald Trump stops to speak to reporters as he prepared to board Marine 1 on the South Lawn of the White House on January 19, 2019 in Washington, DC.

Since the ballot, Trump has only added to his potential legal woes. His shocking Jan. ii telephone call with Georgia Secretary of Country Brad Raffensperger, in which he asked the election official to "find" him only enough votes to overturn Biden'southward victory in the state, may take violated both federal and state laws against ballot fraud. Such a case could exist bolstered past additional actions taken past Trump - telling a state investigator he would be a "national hero" if he uncovered fraud in the Georgia vote, as the Washington Postal service has reported, and forcing the resignation of the top federal prosecutor in Atlanta for failing to aggressively pursue baseless election-fraud claims, according to the Wall Street Journal.

And then there's the Capitol riot. Trump gave an inflammatory oral communication to the crowd that then laid siege to the halls of Congress. While some legal experts say the president'southward exhortations may have been too vague for him to exist charged with inciting the violence, any evidence that emerges of coordination between the White Business firm and radical groups that participated in storming the Capitol could modify the picture.

Mayhap more importantly, widespread outrage over the anarchism has scrambled the political calculations backside bringing any case confronting Trump. Where the Biden administration may accept one time preferred to motility on, it may now face growing calls to concord a former President Trump accountable in i fashion or another.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited past NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

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Source: https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/jail-the-apprentice-business-in-india-what-lies-ahead-for-donald-trump-2354496

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